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NFL mock drafts are essentially an exercise in futility, but people love them. Thus, every NFL "expert" out there now puts one out, and it seems they get more and more ridiculous simply to draw attention. Which brings us to NBC Sports football analyst and former University of Texas and NFL quarterback Chris Simms. He released his full Round 1 mock draft ahead of Thursday, and he has Ohio State QB Justin Fields sliding all the way down to No. 32 overall to the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs. William Hill Sportsbook gives Fields an Over/Under draft position of 7.5.
There are rumors that Fields' stock is slipping a bit, with some teams perhaps scared off by the fact he has epilepsy. It's certainly possible that the Bucs take a quarterback in this draft because seven-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady will be 44 in August and this could be his final season. But Fields all the way to 32? Preposterous. Tampa isn't taking a QB in Round 1, either, as it is in win-now mode.
The CBS Sports Big Board ranks Fields as the No. 5 overall prospect in this draft. ESPN's Mel Kiper ranks him as the No. 2 quarterback behind Trevor Lawrence, who will go No. 1 to Jacksonville, and ahead of Zach Wilson, who will go second overall to the New York Jets. The San Francisco 49ers reportedly will not take Fields at No. 3 overall but either Mac Jones or Trey Lance.
Regarding that William Hill draft position, the Under is a -140 favorite – meaning the site believes Fields will be picked by seventh. It's possible Fields goes No. 4 to Atlanta or No. 7 to Detroit but not likely considering the Falcons have Matt Ryan and the Lions have Jared Goff -- SportsLine's RJ White has Fields going No. 4 but with a team trading up into that spot.
William Hill does not offer a prop on which team will take Fields, but BetMGM does. New England, currently sitting at No. 15 overall, is the +300 favorite followed by Carolina at +350 (holds No. 8 pick and already traded for Sam Darnold) and Denver at +400 (holds No. 9 pick). Tampa Bay is +15000.
What William Hill does offer is a prop on the exact position the Bucs' first player drafted plays. Quarterback is +2000, with defensive lineman the +200 clear-cut favorite.
A friend of mine, Luke Easterling, is an editor and writer for USA Today's Draft Wire and Bucs Wire. He has the Bucs taking Georgia edge rusher Azeez Ojulari with the final pick of the first round. William Hill gives Ojulari an Over/Under draft position of 26.5, with the Under a slight -125 favorite. SportsLine's White has the Bucs taking Washington defensive lineman Levi Onwuzurike.
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