The market is saying the Chargers won't put up much of a fight in this game, but I think Lance can move the ball a bit as the OL isn't going to get any worse and he'll still have a decent stable of passing-game weapons since some key receivers will be out there. The Broncos will certainly be playing to take away Lance's rushing ability as much as possible, and that could leave them exposed on the back end if he's scrambling to throw instead of run. The spread in this game tells us the Chargers will be playing from behind, and even if he's not effective as a passer, Lance should get the volume needed to get over this total.

The Chargers are resting Justin Herbert and potentially other starters, but Jim Harbaugh isn't going to lay down on Sunday. Trey Lance is a talented backup whose mobility may help him generate first downs with the offensive line unlikely to consistently hold off the Broncos' pass rush. But the key reason to like the Chargers is a quality defense that has allowed more than 20 points just once in the last nine games. The Broncos rarely run away with games, leaving them just 1-6 ATS when favored by at least 6 and 2-9 ATS when favored at all, and their priority here will be to just win, not win by margin.

The Chargers likely will run the ball 30 times no matter the score. Coach Jim Harbaugh has indicated that getting healthy for the playoffs is his priority. It's unclear which starters Trey Lance will have with him, but the offensive line will be a disaster because LA won't risk injury to Jamaree Salyer and others. Denver is at home, going for the No. 1 seed, and trotting out an elite pass defense.

The Chargers are planning on resting Justin Herbert and likely some other key players here, but you can only sit so many players and defensive rotations means plenty of important defenders will be out there for this game. It's a unit that has allowed more than 20 points just once in the Chargers' last nine games while generating 15 takeaways in the last seven. The Broncos are averaging just 23.9 points per season, and I don't expect them to top that against a defensive staff that knows them well

No QB has taken a worse beating this season -- or most any other -- than Los Angeles' Justin Herbert. Even with the Chargers able to improve their seed via a win, coach Jim Harbaugh is withholding Herbert for an extra week of healing. It is unclear if any teammates will sit, which makes an ATS play worth delaying pending further evidence. The Under seems safer, with backup Trey Lance lining up against a demonic defense -- and behind an injury-tormented O-line as well. The defenses are ranked third (Denver) and fourth (L.A.) in the league. No matter the low total, the ingredents are there for an Under.