The actual pick here is Bills -10 (-110) at these same odds, and it would be worth buying to -115 if necessary. Willing the roll with the hook as there’s a huge chance the Bills completely blow out the Browns on Sunday. Cleveland has lost two of Shedeur Sanders’ three starts by 18+, and its defense can only do so much – even at home. Buffalo has won three straight, it's used to playing outdoors in the cold, and while it’s been up and down all season, it generally dominates bad teams with six double-digit wins already this year. The Bills can still claim the No. 2 seed if they win out, and they will not be letting up over four quarters.

Buffalo is back on a roll and the SuperBowl talk has resurfaced after last week's magical comeback win over New England. Next week, the Bills host the defending champion Eagles. Sandwiched in between is a road game versus the lowly Browns and a lofty point spread. I expect the Browns to play with effort at home after looking awful last week on the road. The number is inflated because of the Buffalo buzz and the stock being especially low on Cleveland. Bills have let down after big wins before and I see this as being another flat spot in the schedule. Browns defense will make this an ugly game in the windy, cold conditions. Bills defense will allow Cleveland to stay within the number.