The Bills have won four of five to salvage their season and likely end up in the playoffs. With a key matchup looming next week against Miami this is too many points to lay against a downtrodden New England team that has little to play for except ruining the plans of its rivals. The Patriots did so last week against the Broncos and also pulled massive upset of the Bills earlier this season. They should do enough to cover this massive number.

Stefon Diggs has seen his production plummet in the second half of the season, or more specifically after Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator for the Bills. Diggs has eclipsed 48 receiving yards just once over his last six appearances. I am confident the Bills will make a concerted effort to get their best playmaker the football in what is actually a solid matchup on paper. The Patriots do not double team opposing WRs often, have struggled in coverage, and have a significantly stronger run defense. I believe as long as this game is competitive Josh Allen will feed his WR1 with plenty of targets.

James Cook has run 45 times for 249 yards the past two games, but now he's facing an elite run defense that ranks first in yards per attempt (3.2) and second in efficiency and explosive rushes allowed. In the first meeting with New England, Cook ran for 56 yards on 13 carries. Over the past three games, the Pats have allowed 2.9 yards per carry.

The exuberance over the Bills is irrational. Yes, they are winning, but they've dropped seven in a row ATS as double-digit favorites -- the latest three this season. While acknowledging the Patriots have evaded powerhouse offenses of late, their ppg allowance since Week 10 is a minuscule 15.7, and their yardage allowance (second fewest in that span) shows it's no fluke. QB Bailey Zappe has not been the disaster widely expected of him. Thinking coach Bill Belichick can muster up one (final?) scare into a big fave.

Rookie Dalton Kincaid had a huge game against the Patriots in October, but lately his role has diminished significantly. He's amassed just 28 receiving yards total over the past three weeks and was targeted just four times total over the past two games. Dawson Knox has returned, and the offense has changed under interim coordinator Joe Brady. Plus, the Patriots are typically stingy against opposing tight ends, allowing the second-fewest receiving yards per game (39.5) to the position.

I will not be taking my chances with Bill Belichick and the Pats going on the road against a very hungry Bills team thinking about the playoffs. Buffalo is coming off a close win against the Chargers but it was a tough spot -- L.A. just fired its coach, the Chargers were on a mini-bye, the Bills were coming off an emotional road win and traveling across the country. Now the Bills are home, get to play a HATED division rival and can potentially clinch a playoff berth (there are like 14 different scenarios including ties, but five legit scenarios for Buffalo to clinch with a win).

Pats linebackers see a lot of screens and arent that great against them. Cook is the central figure in this Bills offense since the coordinator change and in a must-win game at home will get plenty of targets. He is over this in 4 of the last 6 and after no looks in the pass game last week, expect plenty early in this one. Had 46 receiving yards in first meeting with NE and wasn't seeing as much of the ball then.

Cook went over this in the first meeting and his role has increased mightily in this offense since then. Pats are No 1 vs the run but he fared well against them on the ground and in the pass game. Broncos completed 11 passes to RBs vs NE last week and KC (7-for-83) and PIT (7-for-58) did plenty of that, too. Cook is 100+ scrimmage in 5 of the last 6. Could run for 50 and get 50 in the air here in a normal game script.

This is as bankable as the Hurts Tush Push but it opens far closer to even money every week, for whatever reason. We don't care at this point Bills are No 1 in the RZ because of the QB's rushing TDs and that's not changing now. This has hit four straight and 11 of the last 13. He scored in the first game against the Pats and no reason not to expect it again this weekend

This is a go-to chain mover for the Pats, with Zappe at the helm and moving the pocket and looking to throw short passes on the run. Last week Zeke caught 9 balls for goodness sake. He is over this easy in three of the last four games, which is when Zappe began getting regular work at QB. Harris may be cutting into Zeke's workload some on the ground but not in the screen game.

The Patriots rank fourth in yards per play allowed (4.8), and have been even better over their past three games (4.5). They lead the NFL in rushing defense (3.2 yards per rush allowed) and have been even better over their last three games (2.9). Buffalo wants to run the ball with James Cook but isn't likely to succeed. Look for the Bills to avenge their earlier loss at New England but for the Patriots to play a relatively tight game for the eighth straight week. New England has not lost by more than 10 points since a 31-17 loss at Miami in Week 8.

The Bills suffered a scare against the Chargers but dominated the game statistically, outgaining L.A. 6.2 yards per play to 4.2. The problem is that Buffalo cannot help but commit dumb turnovers, and that could certainly be a problem against a quality New England defense. But even though the Patriots have won two of their last three, the offense isn't actually showing any consistency, with eight of their 13 drives last week not even netting 10 yards. With how well Buffalo is playing in general, I think this line should be at least Bills -14.