When a spread gets this large, I look for reasons to avoid backing the heavy favorite and usually side with them only if I cannot find any such reasons. Hence this pick. The Eagles are better and more talented in every phase of the game. The Commanders delivered a bit of fool's gold to open their season only to get completely exposed by the Bills. I didn't love what Philadelphia's defense did against Minnesota in that backdoor push scenario, but this Washington team does not compare offensively to the likes of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. While the Eagles may not run up the score, they should comfortably win by double digits. This is also a great teaser leg with the Chiefs on Sunday night.

These clubs combined for 53 points in Philadelphia last year and, with the Eagles' offense appearing in near-peak form, look for them to carry the tempo of this game to hit the Over. The Commanders have enough offense to hold up their end of the deal.

This looks like a second half spot for the RB. While Deandre Swift has asserted his role on this team, there is still enough wealth to be shared for Gainwell. In his last 2 outings, he's averaged 14 carries for 48.5 yards. The Eagles will lean on the run with Washington allowing128.7 yards per game on the ground. Look for Gainwell to be the main rusher later in this game as the Eagles look to seal the deal.

Goedert's longest catch in 2023 is for 13 yards. And Goedert has seen plenty of targets - 14 in his past two games - but the ADOT on those targets is 4.5 yards, a massive career low. In fact, he's seen only one target travel more than 15 yards, and he dropped it as he was falling out of bounds. The Commanders have been great against TEs all season, allowing just 29 yards after catch on 11 receptions; only four other teams have a lower YAC/reception allowed rate. Goedert is the third option in a run heavy offense - not the best place to be.

The Eagles surely remember that Washington handed them their first loss last year, a shocking 32-21 November upset in Philly. So I'm not worried that the Eagles will take the Commanders lightly. Sam Howell holds the ball too long and that will be a major issue against this Eagles' pass rush. On the other side, Philly's NFL-best O-line should neutralize Washington's strong defensive front.

This game will simply come down to whether or not the Commanders offensive line can hold up for four quarters against the wave of defensive front pressure from the Eagles. The answer is simply no. While the Commanders D-Line does a solid job as well, the Eagles OL is arguably the best in the sport and will give their offense a chance.

The Eagles are on a short week after easily handling the Bucs, but I don't think that matters with such a mismatch of talent. The Commanders eeked out two wins over bad teams to start the year but were exposed against the Bills, and they are averaging four turnovers and less than 250 yards of offense per game when not facing the Broncos. They've run the ball well, but the Eagles have been great defending the run too. I can't see the Commanders defense slowing down the Eagles rushing attack, and their passing game has looked better since facing the Patriots. I have this line at Eagles -11.5 and only expect it to rise from here.