It’s been a bit of fool’s gold for the Bucs through two weeks as they have beaten up on the lowly Bears and Vikings, a combined 0-6 to start the year. The Eagles, despite being 2-0 ATS, have not looked all that great as the NFL has clearly adjusted to Jalen Hurts. Both teams have struggled against the pass while being formidable against the rush, but Philadelphia had 10 days off to prepare and boasts the better overall team talent. I’d be more comfortable if this was -4 for Philly, but if Hurts can get A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert going alongside DeVonta Smith, the Eagles could pull away in the second half.

The Bucs can't score two TDs? That Philly defense hasn't been nearly as strong against the pass this year as it was in 2022. One Bucs TD might need to be in garbage time, but McLaughlin has hit at least two PATs in both games. I was going to play Tampa Bay ATS until top cornerback Carlton Davis was ruled out.

In the opener against New England, the Eagles ran only 58 plays, but they still had 33 pass attempts. Last week they ran it a whopping 48 times, which will probably not happen again this year. If Monday's game has the normal amount of plays and game script, Jalen Hurt should fly over this number.

Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield is playing very good football right now. He’s thrown for 490 yards and seems comfortable in this Buccaneers system. Philadelphia has benefited from a combined six turnovers by their opponents in their first two games. The Buccaneer’s defense is in better form currently, allowing less than 280 yards passing while Philadelphia is allowing 340 yards through the air. Mayfield and the rest of the Tampa Bay are playing inspired football and will look to continue doing so on Primetime.

Tight ends have absolutely gashed the Eagles thus far this season including lines of 5-56 (Hunter Henry), 3-36 (Mike Gesicki), and 7-66 (T.J. Hockenson). Otton has run routes on more than 3/4 of Baker Mayfield's dropbacks and has eight catches on nine targets thus far. He should receive plenty of opportunities once again on Monday night, in a game Tampa will likely be trailing come the second half.

Since the beginning of 2022, Jalen Hurts has excelled throwing the deep ball (passes of 20 yards or more in the air), especially with weapons like A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith who can fly by opposing cornerbacks. He's attempted an average of four deep passes per game since the start of last season, including eight already this year. I expect a 40+ yard gain or two on Monday night against a suspect Tampa secondary, whose best cornerback, Carlton Davis, is battling a toe injury.

We’ve got a battle of 2-0 teams. The Eagles come in with the NFL No. 2 rushing team at 178 ypg against the No. 2 rush defense as the Bucs allow an average 54 ypg. The Eagles are the No. 1 rush defense allowing 52 ypg against the Patriots and Vikings. But the pass defense has had a problem and they’ve got injuries in the secondary. They’ve allowed 326 ypg passing. Tampa Bay beat the Vikings and Bears with Baker Mayfield getting very comfortable with his WRs throwing for 317 yards last week. I see the Buccaneers playing inspired ball on MNF. I’m taking the points with Tampa Bay.

Cade Otton has played 97% of the teams snap in consecutive weeks with 100% route participation. That is extremely rare at the TE position and he gets a great matchup against an Eagles defense that historically struggles covering TEs and has already surrendered the 2nd most yards to the position through two games. The Eagles are also down multiple linebackers and defensive backs. This number should be closer to 32.5.

Despite a quiet start to his season, A.J. Brown remains a crucial piece of the Eagles offense, with an elite 29% target share and 45% air yard share. Now he will face a Bucs defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in nearly every pass rush metric. This bodes well for Philly's offense and sets up for a potential ceiling game for Brown.

The NFL's least efficient starting RB will meet the league's premiere rush defense when Rachaad White and the Eagles square off on MNF. The Eagles are 1st in Run Stop Win Rate, 3rd in EPA allowed per rush, and 2nd in Defensive Run Grade. Former Georgia teammates Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter has been absolutely dominant on the interior of the Eagles defense. Meanwhile Rachaad White has been the least effective starting RB in the NFL according to nearly every metric. The Bucs O-line isn't doing him many favors either.