New England needed some miraculous plays to get to 20 points last week and the Patriots' defense is very good. Philly scored 25 vs. NE last week but the Eagles needed a pick 6 and three FGs between 48 and 56 yards to get there. Bet the Under.

Ezekiel Elliot accounted for over 30% of the rushing share last week against the formidable front four of Philadelphia. Now he and Rhamondre Stevenson get a much easier matchup against the Dolphins who were absolutely destroyed on the ground by the Chargers in Week 1. Add to that Elliot received 7 targets last week (5 receptions) and you have a nice formula for a rushing and receiving over.

JuJu had a dismal week 1 performance where he turned 7 targets into just 4 receptions for 33 receiving yards. Smith-Schuster looked ineffective and it would not surprise me to see his snaps reduced after playing only 54% of the NE's offensive snaps. Mac Jones attempting a career high 54 passing attempts.

The Dolphins are starting the exact way theu started last season. They were 3-0 and had us all talking big. They began 3-0 beating the Patriots, at the Ravens, and the Bills. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 466 yards and three TDs and he got the quick launch going. No sacks, Ty Hill catches 11 catches, 215 yards, and two TDs. I’m looking for the Dolphins to simply outscore the Patriots, and cover the number.

The Dolphins are in a tough spot, having traveled out to the west coast, back home, and now up north to face the Patriots. Despite the Patriots' unlucky start in Week 1, we can expect the defense to be well-prepared under the leadership of Bill Belichick. In their last two games against New England, Miami has scored 20 and 21 points. Although the Dolphins won against the poorly-coached Chargers in their first game, this matchup will be different. They will be playing outdoors on FieldTurf instead of indoors on artificial turf. Fading teams in Week 2 after scoring 30-plus points and allowing 30 or more has been highly profitable. I like the Pats in this spot!

The Dolphins offense is the talk of the NFL after Tua Tagovailoa's 466-yard performance. He needed every one of them, as the Dolphins were down four with two minutes left before the go-ahead touchdown. The Miami defense allowed 233 rushing yards, 30 first downs and 9 of 15 third down conversions. The Pats played well enough to beat a great Eagles team on both sides of the ball despite OL injury concerns in a game that closed Pats +3.5. This line move up to Dolphins -3 is only concerned with the Miami offense, which we know is elite when everyone is healthy, and isn't crediting the quality of New England.

Both Bill Belichick and Mike McDaniel know what an opening the Rodgers injury offers the rest of the teams in the division, especially with the Jets handing the Bills a loss during the game. The Patriots lost to the Eagles but they definitely should have covered and probably should have won, save for two backbreaking turnovers that staked the Eagles 13 points. This Pats defense is legit. Mike McDaniel's offense is no joke, but Belichick and the Pats held the Dolphins to 21 points or less both times these teams met last year. Mac Jones looked a million times better last week than at any point in 2022 and the Dolphins were not adept at slowing down the Chargers rushing attack last week.

There are three things in play for my under. One this is a dvision game, two the Patritos offense is below average very since Tom Brady left and three Bill Belichick can still game plan defensively for an opponent. His defense did a nice job against a better Philadelphia offense last week. Under 46.5.