This number is rising for good reason. The Chargers gave up a league-high 5.6 yards per carry last season and it's unclear how much they've improved in that area. Raheem Mostert should get the bulk of the carries for Miami, which will want to limit the pass rush from Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. Mostert has never averaged less than 4.9 yards per carry in any season.

The Dolphins are dealing with a few key injuries, particularly to left tackle Terron Armstead, and one way to take the pass-rush heat off them would be to run more than expected. The Dolphins averaged about 100 rushing yards per game last year with Mostert around 55, but he should see the bulk of the work this week with Jeff Wilson out and De'Von Achane recovering from injury. The Chargers continue to be brutal defending the run (last in yards/carry last year), so this is a great matchup for him. I'd play it up to 59.5.