Although Todd Bowles says he'll play his starters, you have to expect them to be pulled fairly quickly with nothing on the line. This regular-season finale is far more important to Atlanta as it tries to build behind Desmond Ridder. The Falcons want to avenge their controversial loss in Tampa Bay -- remember the phantom roughing-the-passer flag? -- and match last season's seven wins. Atlanta has only one player with an injury designation. Lay the points.

This line reflects the likelihood that the Buccaneers won't play starters for the full game, even though it's never really been in Tom Brady's DNA to come out of a game he starts if it's competitive. But in these situations, that expectation of sitting players tends to move the line too much in the other direction. Teams with losing records favored against playoff teams in the 16th game of the season or later are 8-16 ATS all-time. Then you have the Falcons, who have won just one game by more than four points all year (against the 49ers!?) and just aren't built to blow out anyone. Expect the Bucs to build a first-half lead and Atlanta, if they do win, to do so by a field goal.

This ML has come crashing down today when Bucs coach Todd Bowles said he would play his starters on Sunday. And maybe he will .. for a quarter. But if he puts Tom Brady out there for more than a series or two behind an injury-ravaged O-Line with no bye week ahead of the playoffs, it's one of the most foolish coaching decisions in NFL history. Arthur Smith, meanwhile, is trying to build a winning culture in Atlanta and enter the offseason with some momentum.