The Colts' woeful performance on Monday night was one of a team that has the offseason on its mind. The Giants have been underdogs five weeks in a row, but this will be the highest they’ve been favored all season. As poor as the team looked six days ago, expect Indianapolis to finish within the number in what will be a sloppy game.

The Giants are basically only using three wide receivers right now in Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins and James. That has helped James garner 37 targets over the last six games. While his yardage totals haven’t jumped off the page, he does have at least 41 receiving yards in five of the last six games. Last week, he caught eight of 11 targets for 90 yards. While the Giants might not need to throw as much as they did against the Vikings last week, James still has a favorable opportunity to hit the over on this modest total.

Hodgins has quickly emerged as one of the Giants’ top receiving options. He had his best game of the season last week, catching eight passes for 89 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings. He was targeted 12 times, giving him a total of 28 targets over the last four games. He looks more comfortable within the offense each week, and with Daniel Jones building confidence in him, the over is the way to go for his battle with the Colts.

Nick Foles looked like a QB who hadn't gotten much practice time with his teammates in his first start against the Chargers, leading the offense to just three points while completing 17 passes for 143 yards. Like the Chargers, the Giants are one of the easiest teams to run on in the league, so it would not be surprising to see Foles under 200 pass yards again. Pierce has consistently played 70% of the offensive snaps since Week 9 but it hasn't translated into production, with three zero-reception games, three with less than 30 yards (including last week) and just one over this number (vs. Dallas, where he had a 45-yard catch). I'll back the 6-of-7 scenario here and go with the Under.

The Colts are coming off an embarrassing performance against the Chargers, but one player who shined is Moss, who had 65 yards on 12 carries and dominated the RB touches on the ground after a rotation was expected. The Giants rank right behind the Chargers in terms of rush yards allowed to running backs, and the gameplan for Indy should be feeding it to Moss more than 12 times, though that might be all the former Buffalo Bill needs to get over this number, which he has done the last two weeks. Moss has one year left on his rookie deal, and a strong finish would likely cement him as the No. 2 for Indianapolis in 2023.

The Giants rode a great record in one-score games to a 6-1 start to the season, but the market anticipated a regression and only made them favorites twice since that hot start. Despite that, they've covered five of their last seven games and had a great offensive day against Minnesota last week losing on a 61-yard field goal. Kayvon Thibodeaux should have a field day against the Colts offensive line here, and it's hard to see Indy figuring out a path to offensive success six days after the disaster against the Chargers at home. The Giants feel like a team you don't want to lay a bunch of points with ever, but the Colts are bad enough that I'll do it.