The Seahawks are double-digit underdogs for this matchup against the Chiefs, which suggests they'll be in a negative gamescript for the most part. Kansas City has faced the fourth-most pass attempts in the league as teams try to keep up with Patrick Mahomes, and Smith has been good for 33+ attempts in seven straight games while often completing around 70% of his passes. He didn't get over this number last week against the elite 49ers unit but topped it in five straight prior. He had a three-game run under this total before that, but Seattle won all three of those games by double digits. That type of game would be surprising here, so I'm counting on him to top 250 once again.

This checks every box I look for in a potential spike week for Kelce. For starters we know The Chiefs and Mahomes throw the ball as much as any team in the NFL, regardless of opponent. Speaking of their opponent, the Seahawks have surrendered the third most receiving yards to opposing TEs this season. Seattle is 28th in DVOA to the position. Weather doesn't appear to be an issue and Kelce is the engine of the highest volume passing offense in the league. He should pick up chunk plays all day and if Seattle can push KC a bit, he will sail over 100 yards for the sixth time this season. I'd play this up to 79.5.