Now that this is +2.5, I have to take it as I don't see it getting higher and perhaps dropping back down. Seems like a talent mismatch in favor of the Cardinals -- especially on offense -- but a bigger coaching mismatch in favor of the Patriots, although New England is downgraded because Matt Patricia is actually allowed to even speak to the offense much less call the plays. Bill Belichick is basically a .500 ATS head coach with the team when Tom Brady is not his QB. Jakobi Meyers and Damien Harris are both out. Meyers leads all New England wideouts in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. If the Cardinals can't win this game on the longest possible bye a team can have in the NFL, then the one-time Patriots draft pick Kliff Kingsbury deserves to be fired.

The Patriots are coming off back-to back-losses after three straight wins, but the offense has only topped 300 yards once in its last six games, and that came against a mediocre and also banged-up Minnesota pass defense. They racked up wins playing several mediocre offenses during that run but have struggled defending mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields, losing both those games at home while surrendering a total of 431 rushing yards. The Cardinals have been able to get healthier during the bye, and I'm excited to see their top duo healthy and playing together. Bill Belichick's team has struggled in primetime this year, and I think it happens again here.