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Sun 12/11 | 6:00 PM UTC | Arlington
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Houston Texans 2-13, 7-8 ATS
HOU +17-110
HOU +1050
Over 44.5-110
Dallas Cowboys 13-5, 11-7 ATS
DAL -17-110
DAL -2000
Under 44.5-110

Expert Picks

NFL | Houston 23 @ Dallas 27 | 12/11 | 6:00 PM UTC

Houston +18

WIN

ANALYSIS: With a spread of this magnitude, don't blink and just go with the underdog. Forget Dallas' league-best points differential. Ignore that the Texans have a single straight-up win. If there is anything to hang one's hat on, Davis Mills returns as QB after a two-week absence. Of his 10 starts, Houston has not lost by more than this spread, though one defeat equaled it. The Cowboys have been explosively lately, but that isn't their M.O. historically under QB Dak Prescott.

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Mike Tierney

Top Dog
+1265 56-39-4 IN LAST 99 NFL PICKS
+1019 29-17 IN LAST 46 DAL ATS PICKS
+813 18-9-2 IN LAST 29 HOU ATS PICKS

Season Splits

2-13, 7-8 ATS
13-5, 11-7 ATS
All Games
ALL
All Games
36%
4-7-1
8-4
67%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
40%
2-3-1
5-2
71%
As Underdog or PK
STATUS
As Favorite
36%
4-7-1
5-2
71%
When Spread was +15.5 to +18.5
SPREAD
When Spread was -18.5 to -15.5
0%
0-0
0-0
0%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
40%
2-3-1
4-1
80%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win <40% of Games
25%
1-3
4-1
80%
vs Teams Allowing <21 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 21 to 25 PPG
75%
3-1-1
3-0
100%
After <=8 Days Off
REST
After <=8 Days Off
38%
3-5-1
7-2
78%
vs DAL
HEAD TO HEAD
vs HOU
0%
0-0
0-0
0%