The Bears have shown some improvement on offense but this rates to be a tough matchup against a stout Miami run defense that is likely to leave them in long down-and-distance situations. The Dolphins have an explosive and entertaining passing offense, but Chicago ranks No. 5 against the pass and its defense has yielded just 1.6 ppg in three home outings this year. Look for this to be a bit of a grinder that hits Under the total.

Not touching the spread as I think the Bears can stay within 3, but no way they don't miss Roquan Smith in the middle. And the Fins surely will be jacked up to unleash new pass-rusher Bradley Chubb. Miami has been spectacular offensively for the most part with Tua Tagovailoa on the field. Not sure Chase Claypool will have much of an immediate effect for the Bears.

The Dolphins barely covered in Detroit last week, while the Bears are coming off their worst loss of the season, at least on the scoreboard. But there have been positive signs with Chicago for three weeks straight, with a tough-to-stop run game paired with a quarterback who just had his best passing day of the season despite the loss. Yet this line move a point toward Miami from the lookahead, and though my power ratings agree with the move, it's a bad spot for Miami in a second straight road game. This Matt Eberflus-led Bears team is going to get better as the season progresses, and Chicago is a live 'dog in this matchup.