How good is the Dolphins' offense? If you take away the points they scored in one quarter — the fourth quarter against the Ravens when they went off for 28 against a depleted Baltimore secondary — they’d be averaging 17 PPG, which would rank 30th in the league. Granted, that’s with Tua Tagovailoa missing a few games, and in Detroit they’ll face the NFL’s worst defense, so they'll be scoring much more than that here. But with D’Andre Swift returning, Amon-Ra St. Brown practicing fully and Jared Goff back on his home turf going against a banged-up Dolphins secondary that’s allowed the sixth most passing yards and yards per attempt, look for the Lions to get back to scoring in bunches and keep it close. Grab the points.

The Dolphins haven’t covered in their last four games, but saw semblances of good QB early in Sunday’s win. The Lions, on the other hand, have lost four straight and are 0-3 ATS in their last three,. But it’s the last two games in which the offense checked out completely. Just six points were scored combined and now their best WR has a concussion. Jared Goff’s offense has dried up. Take the Dolphins to cover.

The Dolphins seemed like they were about to blow out the Steelers but fell asleep in the second half to miss the cover. They should score plenty more points here against a last-place defense in Detroit. The Miami defense has also stepped it up the last few weeks, and they get to face an offense coming off a five-turnover game with six points scored in its last two games combined. Detroit isn't that bad, but it certainly isn't as good as we hoped. With the Dolphins a well-above average team with a top-six offense in yards per play, I think they need to be laying more than a field goal against a team in the running for the No. 1 pick.