I have totally gone back and forth on this one, but with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both expected to play through injury, gotta go with the Fish. Not even sure it's a downgrade from Tua Tagovailoa to Teddy Bridgewater. If Teddy gets hurt, then yeah issues.

Is Teddy Bridgewater much worse than Tua Tagovailoa? If you take away the game where Tua torched the Ravens' terrible secondary, he's thrown two TD passes all season. Bridgewater is 42-21 ATS as a starter in his career (5-2 as a road favorite). The Dolphins were understandably shaken last week amid Tua's concussion, but I think they'll regroup against a Jets team that's not very good -- a Nick Chubb non-kneel and some fortunate bounces off Kenny Pickett passes making them 2-2 instead of 0-4. Lay the points.

The Dolphins spent the first four weeks not getting any respect from the market -- I thought their lines against the Patriots and Bills were particularly egregious. Now they they've lost their starting QB, the market is finally ready to treat them like an elite team? Yes, the Jets are bad, but they should be better this week now that Zach Wilson has had a chance to shake off some rust. The Jets defense hasn't been much worse than the Dolphins' so far, and New York's solid rush D should put the game in Teddy Bridgewater's hands. He's been awesome ATS on the road in his career, because he typically gets too little respect. That's not the case here.