This is a horrific spot for the Dolphins, who are coming off a "Super Bowl"-type win over the division-rival Bills. Miami's defense was on the field for 90 plays in extreme heat, Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with back and ankle injuries, and the team is traveling on a short week to face the defending AFC champs. I still can't lay more than a field goal with this Bengals team. Cincy averages a league-low 4.5 yards per play (the Dolphins rank third at 6.4 yards per play). The Bengals also lost nose tackle and team captain DJ Reader to a knee injury. in Sunday's win over the Jets. Look for a game that comes down to the wire and back Miami to improve to 4-0 ATS.

The Dolphins have beaten three very good teams, including the NFL's top-rated club in Buffalo. Before you bet this, you have to wonder about the health of QB Tua Tagovailoa, who experienced some dizziness when knocked out of the game against the Bills but came back to play. Is the league going to step in and rule him out? I don’t think so, but I did make this bet knowing that’s part of the reason for the number on a short week. Coach Mike McDaniel says Tagovailoa isn't in concussion protocol. My entire angle here is knowing Eli Apple, Vonn Bell and the rest of the Bengals' secondary can’t stop Miami's receivers. The Dolphins' defense also will be a problem for Cincinnati. I'm taking Miami and the points.