On a day filled with double-digit spreads, this game belongs in the group. Carolina has averaged 10 points in its past three and maintains little hope of rushing the ball against a nasty defense that allows 91.4 rushing yards per game. Its QB problems persist. Tampa Bay has a boat-load of incentive, with the coveted No. 2 NFC seed within reach. So does Tom Brady, who can become the third QB since 1991 to top the league in all major passing categories.

It's rare we get Tom Brady in this scenario under double-digit points so I'm jumping all over it. Let's examine how Tampa's game last week against the Jets helps us this week against Carolina. First, the Bucs almost lost that game outright. There are plenty of items to fix and Brady knows it. Expect a much more crisp offensive performance from front to back. Second, Tampa is still playing for the No. 2 seed in the NFC. After a wild-card trip last year, Brady especially knows playing at home is in his favor. Third, the AB situation. Brady and Bruce Arians both stuck their necks out and feel a little embarrassed but a whole lot more motivated. Expect points. Not to mention, their wide receivers are now playing for a starting position so they all want to shine. TB12 will use the 2nd half for reps and familiarity with every WR on the field because he knows they all need it for the gauntlet beginning next week. The Bucs will shine on both sides of the ball Sunday.

The Buccaneers are shut out of winning the No. 1 seed, so this line dropped eight points off the lookahead number. But the No. 2 seed still has value; don't you want to play at home in the divisional round? Bruce Arians sounds like he'll be playing to win, so we should be getting a lot of value here against an awful Carolina team that can't do anything on offense and has been lit up plenty on defense in the second half of the season. Even with the Bucs banged up at the skill positions, Tom Brady should be able to have success no matter who is running routes. I like the Bucs to win this one running away.