The Jets are bad, but that doesn't mean I want to be the person trusting the Miami Dolphins to cover as a double-digit favorite. Miami is only 6-7 itself, after all, and it's being overvalued this week because it's riding a five-game win streak. But if we look closer at that streak, we see that the five teams Miami has beaten are a combined 22-43. One of those teams was the Jets, who Miami beat at MetLife Stadium, 24-17, but it was a lot closer than the score suggests if you look at the box score.

Miami just put top receiver Jaylen Waddle on the COVID list and the Fins might be down their top three running backs, too. So they may struggle to score. During a five-game winning streak, the Fins are allowing just 11.0 ppg -- which includes a 24-17 win at the Jets in Week 11. I'm not sure New York will score 17 this time considering Miami coaches had the bye week to prepare for that offense and it's Zach Wilson now and not Joe Flacco, who played pretty well in that first meeting. I've seen this number drop to 41 at some books already so let's grab it.