It's understandable that some would side with the Vikings in this spot given their win last week against the Chargers and propensity for playing close games, Aaron Rodgers' injured toe and Aaron Jones being out for the game. I just can't get there. This Packers defense has been absolutely stellar, and Green Bay has already proven it can win and cover (a) without Rodgers and (b) without Davante Adams. With Rodgers able to go and AJ Dillion a capable RB1 in any NFL offense, value has somehow been created for a team that is 9-1 ATS with five straight ATS covers on the road. We've been riding the Packers this far, and there's no reason to jump off now. There are spots to fade Green Bay (perhaps starting next week) but just not here.

The Vikings are going to look back on this season with a "should be" mentality. All five of their losses were by seven points or fewer, with four being by fewer than five. Look for their road win against the Los Angeles Chargers last week to serve as the turning point. Take Minnesota against a Packers team that will feel the pain of not having RB Aaron Jones (knee) available.

I love the Packers to cover this small line. They're simply the better team. The defense has limited four of its last five opponents to 14 points or fewer. I realize Aaron Jones is out, but they still have Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Minnesota has been on the wrong end of many close games this year. And I think the Vikings are on the wrong end again on Sunday.