This is -7.5 most everywhere before kickoff, so look for that number. Though the Falcons appear to be in the midst of a turnaround, this is a great spot for the Cowboys coming off a disastrous loss to the Broncos that has taken some of the wind out of their sails with bettors. Atlanta has struggled when challenged by high-powered offenses, which has not happened much this season, and Dallas must see this as a get-right game at home against a vulnerable opponent. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is also in a revenge spot against his former team, and more importantly, knows Matt Ryan’s tendencies. The Cowboys have two guys to cover, Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts. Stymie their production, and this could be a double-digit win.

The Cowboys first non-cover of the season came last week when Denver won 30-16 in Dallas. The spread was similar to this week. At peak rating, they failed to cover against a .500 team. The Falcons have played their best on the road, winning and covering three of four. The Falcons have also won and covered three of their last four games. Take the points with the Falcons.

The Falcons are a bad team coming off a win over a division rival, a spot where I'd typically be looking to fade them. But this line doesn't appear to be overvaluing Atlanta at all; in fact, my power ratings have it as right on the money. So why am I going with the Falcons here? Matt Ryan has looked very good as he's gotten comfortable in Arthur Smith's system, and he overcame a dud against Carolina to light up a good Saints defense last week. The Cowboys had severe problems blocking with Tyron Smith out, and there's no guarantee he's back this week. Whether Smith plays or not, Atlanta is capable of backdooring a cover even if the Cowboys score a bunch of points.