Making an argument for either side in a clash of 1-7 teams whose DVOA rankings are near rock bottom isn't easy, but there are a few reasons to back Houston here: 1) The Texans get Tyrod Taylor back at QB, a major upgrade over Davis Mills, and 2) This is simply too many points for the Dolphins to be laying against ... anyone. Even with Taylor being sidelined since Week 2, the Texans have gone 4-4 ATS (the Dolphins have gone 2-5-1). Grab the points.

This selection is more about the defenses. Houston has yielded more points than all but one team, with an average of 33 the past three outings. Miami has endured two recent games in which it gave up 45 and 30. Tyrod Taylor, outstanding in his six quarters at season’s start before an injury, is an upgrade at QB for the Texans.

We have two of the worst offenses in the NFL against two of the worst defenses playing in front of a Miami home crowd that has the worst home edge of every team but the Chargers. How are the Dolphins favored by so much? The Texans are 4-4 ATS and get back Tyrod Taylor, who engineered their only win in Week 1, at quarterback. I’m forced to take the points here with the Texans.

Both these teams enter Week 9 on seven-game losing streaks, and both have had to turn to backup quarterbacks during that run. The difference is that Davis Mills has played in all those games and started most of them, while Tua Tagovailoa has been back for two weeks. Another difference: the Dolphins have losses to the Jaguars and Falcons during their run, while the Texans haven't played a team worse than the Colts or Patriots since Week 3. Miami just doesn't deserve to be large favorite against anybody right now. Playing Houston early last week to get ahead of a Tyrod Taylor line move didn't work out, but I'm going back to the well here with an increased likelihood he's back and this line drops.