It's going to be fairy chilly in Kansas City and it's raining during the day, which might keep the scoring down a bit. Probably won't play the total, but I'm not sure the schizo Chiefs should be giving 10.5 points to anyone. The Giants won't have Saquon Barkley or Kenny Golladay but will have Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard. If this spread were 9.5 points, I'd probably take Kansas City. Not at 10.5. Daniel Jones has been an ATS covering machine on the road in his career.

The Chiefs give up an NFL-high 6.6 yards per play. Even though we can expect a bounceback from the K.C. offense -- it helps that Giants safety Jabrill Peppers is out -- the Chiefs' defense will leave the backdoor open. New York has already covered at Washington and New Orleans (outright win). The Giants got blown out at Dallas but that was a game in which Daniel Jones got knocked out early. Back New York to improve to 23-7 in its last 30 as a road dog.

The Chiefs are a mess right now, managing to score only three points against a Titans defense that gives up six yards per play and hadn't looked good at all over the first part of the year. The turnovers are an issue that hasn't gone away, and the defense can't be relied upon to pick up the slack as it has the worst yards per play allowed in the league. I'd be alright with the Chiefs laying double digits against a team with absolutely no offense like the Texans, but the Giants can score points if the offensive line doesn't fold, and with the Chiefs managing just eight sacks in seven games, this might be a sneakily decent matchup for that unit.