Wow this jumped from Saints -4 to -5.5 just recently because a few key New Orleans guys are available off injured reserve. I was on the fence at -4 but have to take 5.5 points in what's a must-win game for Seattle staring at potentially a 2-5 record. Weather likely will be a major factor and you'd have to favor the Seahawks in that regard as playing in the rain isn't exactly uncommon in Seattle. Jameis Winston is a warm-weather/indoor QB.

The Seahawks come into this game off one of their best performances of the year on the defensive side of the ball, and I expect that success to continue against a Saints offense that hasn't been great throwing the ball this season. And the Seahawks offense is limited by having Geno Smith at quarterback, though the unit finally got things together in the second half vs. Pittsburgh. On the side of both defenses could be the weather, as rain and somewhat windy conditions appear to be in the cards. That matters for a team like the Saints used to playing in perfect conditions with a home dome. I expect a close, low-scoring game similar to what we saw in Cleveland on Thursday.

The Seahawks offense looked pretty terrible in the first half against the Steelers but then found enough success in the second half that I don't think Seattle is totally lost moving forward. The Seahawks defense had perhaps its best game of the season despite the loss, and they could continue to rise to the occasion against a New Orleans offense that's been hit or miss this year. While the Saints get the benefit of extra rest, this is also a lookahead spot with the Bucs on the schedule next. A team that's lost to the Giants and what's turned out to be a bad Panthers squad shouldn't be laying this many points against a team that just showed it can compete with Geno Smith.

The bye week came at a great time for the Saints, as several starters are returning from injury. The list includes left tackle Terron Armstead and center Erik McCoy; those are huge additions in a weather game that should be decided in the trenches. Since 2016, Sean Payton is 18-2 straight-up in his team's first four games after the bye. The Saints also are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 road games, and 20-4-1 ATS in their last 25 in October. The Seahawks remain without Russell Wilson and are coming off an extremely physical OT loss in Pittsburgh. Lay the points.