With injuries to the offensive line and a secondary that just got torched a week ago, the Colts have done little to make me believe they should be this short an underdog against such a potent offense, even at home. Matthew Stafford appears to be exactly what the Rams needed to get over the hump, and if the Colts were unable to stop Russell Wilson last week, I'm not exactly sure how they contain Stafford this week. This number is going up for a reason, and while I'm late on it, I'm still comfortable siding with Los Angeles in a big confidence-boosting spot ahead of a huge showdown with Tampa Bay next week.

Let’s ride the Matthew Stafford train for awhile. His Rams debut met all expectations, affirming L.A. as the second pick to win the NFC. Coach Sean McVay thrives early in the season (plus-five ATS in September) and away from home (plus-six ATS). Unlike Stafford, Colts QB Carson Wentz was mediocre in his debut with a new team. His coach, Frank Reich, has yet to pull off an ATS win at home when receiving points, and the Indy secondary is overmatched against the Stafford-led pass attack.

The Rams looked dominant on Sunday Night Football, with Matthew Stafford appearing to fit perfectly in Sean McVay's offense. But I like the Colts to bounce back from their usual Week 1 stumble and play much better defensively. LA has the Super Bowl champs on deck, so this is a nice spot. After what David Montgomery (108 yards, 6.8 ypc) did versus the Rams, look for Jonathan Taylor to excel as Indy keeps this one close.