You never want to overreact to Week 1, but the Jags defense allowed 31 points per game last season and managed to top that by giving up 37 to the Tyrod Taylor-led Texans. Urban Meyer is (unconvincingly) denying interest in returning to college after just one NFL game, and I don't want to bet on his team against anyone at less than a touchdown -- especially with Teddy Covers and a good Broncos defense coming to town. Lay the points.

Jaguars rookie QB Trevor Lawrence endured a harsh initiation into the league, and he ain’t seen nothing yet. Relentless pass rusher Von Miller, sidelined throughout 2020 with an injury, launched his return with two sacks against the Giants. Denver will dial up blitzes for Miller and sidekicks to confound Lawrence. The Broncos’ limited offense took a hit with an injury to primary WR Jerry Jeudy, who caught six passes in New York before going down. These signs point to a low score.

Teddy Bridgewater is 22-3 ATS on the road as a starting quarterback after Sunday's 27-13 win over the Giants. He did not throw an interception, which is no surprise, as he protects the ball better than most. I like the Broncos' defense to impose their will for a second straight week.