Look, Sam Darnold starting for the Panthers does not exactly instill confidence in a bettor. But if there’s any game in which you may want to believe in Darnold, it’s against his former team at home in Week 1. The Panthers’ slew of playmakers and strong enough defense will face a rookie quarterback playing his first game on the road for a team that went 2-14 last season. I’m sure Rob Saleh has made some defensive improvements for the Jets, but will they be able to move the ball offensively with their receiving corps so injured? Who is actually going to carry the rock consistently for New York? Again, if there's any game in which to take Carolina, it's this one.

A team on the road with a first-year head coach and a rookie quarterback only getting 3.5 seems a little low for me. My model makes this closer to 4.5, which means it's a very solid value play here. This one was at -5 or even -5.5 at some books before being bet down over the last few days, and I tend to agree with the opening value more. With the Jets receiving core already banged up, I'll take the Panthers to get this one done by more than a field goal.

Zach Wilson was impressive in the preseason, but that's the preseason. The rookie QB will be start the regular season on the road with a banged-up receiving corps and a bad offensive line, while leaning on a rookie head coach for advice. Are we sure Sam Darnold's biggest issue wasn't Adam Gase? Lay the 3.5.

The Sam Darnold Bowl! Rookie head coaches have been terrible straight up and ATS the past few years, and of course the Jets have one in Robert Saleh. They also lost their top pass-rusher to a season-ending injury in training camp in Carl Lawson and may be down No. 1 receiver Jamison Crowder (COVID). Another wideout, Keelan Cole, appeared on Thursday's injury report. Their running back situation looks less-than-stellar. The Panthers are healthy, and I expect a breakout season from Darnold now that he has competent coaching away from the Jets/Adam Gase. I don't love this number at 4 but doubt it drops any further -- it was 5.5 at one point. Pondered the moneyline and there will be times this season/this week I go that route.

The Panthers should be -6 in this spot at home. The Jets are being rated too high and that’s where the disparity is. The Jets have a new coach in Robert Saleh, who takes over a 2-14 team. They’ll likely be starting a rookie QB making his debut on the road. Tough spot. The Panthers have lots of offensive weapons with a QB having added incentive to beat his old team. Sam Darnold's revenge. Panthers to cover.