I was hoping this would get to -2.5 as I was then going to take the Pats, but at this number and with a rookie quarterback (Mac Jones) making his first start, well, now I'm on Miami. I tend to figure this game is decided by a field goal in either direction. New England's top corner, Stephon Gilmore, is out. That should make life a bit easier for Tua. Miami left tackle Austin Jackson was in question on the COVID list but he has been activated.

I try not to make a habit of betting rookie QBs in their first start, especially when they're favored. While some might see Mac Jones beating out Cam Newton as a good sign about his play, Cam Newton has been a subpar QB for the last three seasons. Plus, at Alabama, Jones threw short passes off RPOs and his playmakers did the rest. The Pats don't have the same caliber of player around him.

This line has grown since Mac Jones was named the starter for the Patriots, which is a little wild when you consider he's making his first career start as the fifth QB drafted in April and doing it against a premium secondary with a head coach who knows this team very well in Brian Flores. I think if you can catch a field goal in this matchup, I like backing the Dolphins, especially with Stephon Gilmore unavailable for the Patriots. One other consideration: the Pats are going with a rookie UDFA kicker who struggled even at the collegiate level, and the Dolphins' big edge at the position could be the difference but isn't really being factored into the line.