Sometimes trends are very useful. Sometimes not so much. History tells us that not only will a few underdogs cover on Wild Card Weekend but win outright -- there have also never been six Wild Card games and never with no fans in the stands. I've backed only favorites on Saturday and I tried to talk myself into taking the points here, but I simply don't see how Washington even gets to 10 points. Alex Smith probably isn't playing. Barring a defensive/special teams touchdown or two by Washington (or late garbage TD), the Bucs should absolutely win this by double digits.

This game will be ugly. If Philadelphia didn't intentionally tank last week, Washington wouldn't be here. I don't think Alex Smith will be able to escape this Buccaneers defense, and I worry he's putting his health at risk. Tampa Bay receiver Antonio Brown had his best game of the season last week, and the Buccaneers offense will be able to do whatever it wants against Washington. Tampa Bay wins as it pleases.

This is an abundance of points to hand to a strong defense. Yet, a rule of thumb in the playoffs is to select the team you believe will win outright with little regard for the spread. (Last year, for example, six of the 11 postseason margins were double digits). Washington’s offense seems stuck in quicksand, and QB Alex Smith (calf) is ailing enough that coach Ron Rivera might have to spell him with barely used backup Taylor Heinicke. The Bucs’ offense has heated up, with an average of 37 ppg the last four weeks. Tampa Bay backers might want to hold off until the status of Mike Evans (knee) clears up, though there is sufficient depth in case the five-star WR is idled.