When it comes to the Raiders, I feel like they get a lot of extra credit for being 2-0 ATS against the Chiefs this year, but other than in those games, I have found them wholly unimpressive. The Colts are 4-2 ATS in their last six and should be able to get whatever it wants out of the backfield. On the other side, Indianapolis should limit Josh Jacobs if he even winds up playing. WIth this under a field goal, I feel comfortable enough to back the Colts in this road spot. It may not be easy, but Indianapolis should prevail by three or more.

The Over is 6-2 in the Colts' last eight games, and they've scored at least 26 points in six of their last seven. Indianapolis' defense ranks eighth in yards allowed per play but is 22nd over the last six weeks. The Over is 8-3-1 in Las Vegas' contests this year. The Raiders' offense ranks 14th in DVOA while their defense is 24th in DVOA and 26th in yards allowed per play.

The Raiders stunk on the road the last two weeks, but back home for a game with likely playoff implications, I expect them to play much better here. The Colts could have a major issue at left tackle if Anthony Castonzo can't go, as they'd be down to third-stringer Chaz Green. Either way, Castonzo won't be 100%. Not good when Philip Rivers is reportedly dealing with a plantar plate rupture in his foot. These Raiders won in Indy last year, and as the only team to beat the Chiefs, they've shown they can rise to the occasion. Take the points.

The Raiders have given up 35.3 points per game over their last three, and only one of those was against the Chiefs. They'll be missing Jeff Heath and Damon Arnette in the secondary, with two other key defensive backs questionable. Most important, it looks like Colts left tackle Anthony Castonzo is going to play. This is a great matchup for Philip Rivers, Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines catching passes out of the backfield. Lay it.

The Raiders have been in a freefall since losing to the Chiefs, getting blown out by a not-great Falcons team and then barely avoiding a loss to the 0-11 Jets last week. Their offense hasn't been the problem, but this is one of the toughest defenses they've faced all year, with Indy ranking ninth in points per drive and fourth in yards per rush. That last stat should make it hard for Josh Jacobs to get going even if he's able to play, and while Indy is dealing with injury issues at tackle, the Raiders aren't good rushing the passer (30th in adjusted sack rate). I expect the Colts offense to have a lot of success here and the defense to do enough to cover.

The Raiders should have lost to the Jets. They are really lucky not to be on a three-game losing streak. Philip Rivers is playing mistake-free football. T.Y. Hilton has come alive, and so has Jonathan Taylor. Darren Waller is not going to torch the Colts like he did the Jets. Lay the small number.