This line is going to increase to a full TD, so I'm hopping on it before it does. I like Joe Burrow and the Bengals a lot, and they should give the Steelers a run here. But Cincinnati is getting too much credit in this spot without Joe Mixon as Burrow faces a defense unlike any he has yet in the NFL. I'm not worried about Ben Roethlisberger being unable to practice during the week. Ultimately, the Steelers will be able to take advantage of a rough Bengals defense and clear the touchdown spread.

The lookahead line on this game was Steelers -10, so we've seen significant movement based on Ben Roethlisberger not practicing while on the COVID-19 list, which I don't see as an issue, and on Pittsburgh's poor performance last week in Dallas, the type of game the Steelers lose at least once a season but managed to win. The Bengals have several key absences to overcome in this matchup, and I don't know how they slow down Pittsburgh's elite pass rush, which should make it hard to get a backdoor cover. Typically we'd see inflated spreads for undefeated teams, but this is the rare case where we're actually getting value, as I think 10 was closer to the right number all along.

I can see where Steelers backers would be a bit worried here because Big Ben couldn't practice this week due to COVID-19 protocol, and the Bengals are off their bye week. However, now that it's under Steelers -7 and with Joe Mixon again out for Cincinnati, I feel more confident that Pittsburgh can win by 7. Joe Burrow has been fantastic but hasn't seen a defense like this yet.