D.J. Chark's absence hurts the Jags, but Gardner Minshew spreads the ball around. He's facing a Miami defense that allows the highest passer rating in the league and an NFL-worst 7.2 yards per play. Dolphins CB Byron Jones is out, and without him the secondary looked confused last week versus Buffalo. Ryan Fitzpatrick will put up a bunch of yards and likely a couple of TDs, but he'll also make key mistakes. His TD/INT ratio is 95/94 on the road, compared to 117/90 at home. Lay it as Minshew improves to 10-5 ATS in his young career.

Gardner Minshew is completing 75.4 percent of his throws and has thrown six TDs against two INTs. The Dolphins' defense is terrible and last week's loss to the Bills wasn't as close as the score indicates. Lay the points.

I refuse to bet an NFL game with a line at 3 points (or 7) because of a potential push. Because we can't buy points in this format and don't have a huge take on the total, moneyline it is. The Fins will be without top cornerback Byron Jones, which should benefit Gardner Minshew. He's T2 in the NFL in TD passes. Meanwhile, Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick dating to last year has been MUCH worse on the road than at home. It could be Tua time after this one. The Fins are 6-19 in their past 25 as dogs.

Jay Gruden has found his proper place in the coaching hierarchy. As an offensive coordinator, the former Washington head coach has hot-wired the Jaguars’ offense. It rang up 480 yards Sunday against Tennessee’s formidable D. The task will be easier with the likelihood that Byron Jones (groin), Miami’s high-priced CB, sits out. Jacksonville is eager to hand off its lead in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes.