Taking neither of last week's results into account, the Ravens are simply a for more productive and talented team than the Texans. The trio of Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins are going to run all over Houston, and Baltimore's defense is going to keep Deshaun Watson on his toes all day. The Ravens have been a cover machine dating back to next season, and they do not seem to have lost a step. This should not be a blowout, but Baltimore should win handily by double digits.

The Ravens blew out the Texans last year, 41-7, and Baltimore is better this year while Houston is worse. Last year the Ravens rushed for 256 yards and averaged a robust 6.9 yards a carry against a Texans defense that did not make any significant personnel additions in the offseason. The fact that last year's game was in Baltimore while Sunday's game will be in Houston matters little with no fans at NRG Stadium. My model says the Ravens cover almost 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value with Baltimore at this number.

The Ravens destroyed the Texans last year and it's not like Houston improved since then. If anything, the Texans are worse. Houston gave up 138 rushing yards to KC's Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the season opener and now faces an even better rushing offense. While this game should be more competitive because it's in Houston, I'll lay the touchdown.

Baltimore's offense looked to be in midseason form last week against Cleveland, scoring 38 points in a blowout victory. It was the passing game that was the story, as Lamar Jackson completed 80 percent of his passes and threw for three touchdowns. We saw this matchup last year, when the Ravens routed the Texans 41-7 at home. I'm sure this one won't be as ugly, but I do feel strongly about the Ravens winning by more than a touchdown.