This line has gone up a full three points since it opened, making it a full TD, which is a lot to lay on the road against the Chicago's No. 7 defense by DVOA. The Chiefs are rolling and looked great last week in the snow, but the Bears and Mitchell Trubisky have been playing much better of late and should be able to keep it within a touchdown. Grab the points.

I think this line has ballooned to the point where we're getting value on the home 'dog. I don't love playing the Bears the week after they were eliminated from the playoffs, but I expect the defense to tamp the scoring down a bit considering they rank third in points allowed on the season and have allowed more than 24 points just once all year. The question is whether the Bears can move the ball on an improved Chiefs defense, and while I still have my doubts, they've managed at least 380 yards of offense in each of their last three games after hitting that mark just once in their first 11. This feels more 24-20 than a Chiefs blowout.

Patrick Mahomes takes on the team that probably should've taken him No. 2 overall in 2017. Many will make this game about the two QBs in this matchup, but the talk needs to be about the Chiefs defense and how it has improved since the Chargers game. To me, the defense is the X-factor. Chicago will have a hard time moving the ball consistently.

A solid defensive team receiving a five-spot at home in primetime is often a winning formula. Not here, though. Kansas City has swept its last four games outright and ATS, with credit going mainly to an overlooked defense. It has yielded fewer than 11 points per game during the streak. QB Patrick Mahomes seems impervious to weather and minor ailments. Chicago is all but kaput in the chase for a playoff berth, and the Bears have covered in just two of their last 10. Chiefs cover.