The Over is 7-0 in Tennessee's last seven games, all with Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback. Tannehill has been 5.5 points better than the average QB over those seven games. Texans QB Deshaun Watson has had seven really good starts, four really bad ones and two that were average. Houston's defense is ranked 26th, allowing 6.1 yards per play, while Tennessee's is 16th at 5.7. Both teams' pass defense rank in the bottom third of the league.

The Titans are clearly the better team right now, with wins in six of their last seven and double-digit wins in their last three. DVOA also highlights a massive gap between these teams, with the Titans 22.7 percentage points better in their weighted formula. The Houston defense has fallen apart and now ranks 27th in DVOA and bottom two in both third down and red zone percentage. At home against a defense playing like that, Ryan Tannehill should continue to roll, and with the Titans defense ranking seventh in points per game, they should offer enough resistance for the home team to cover.

Since QB Ryan Tannehill was elevated to starter, the Titans are 6-1. With considerable help from RB Derrick Henry, they have averaged 37.5 points over the last four weeks as Tannehill became the second QB to record a passer rating of at least 130 in such a stretch. Houston can score in bunches, too, but its defense has backtracked without DE J.J. Watt while Tennessee's ranks in the middle of the pack.

The Titans are good, but are they as good as they've been in recent weeks? If they are they're the greatest team in NFL history, so I'm going to err on the side of "no, they aren't." At home in a big AFC South battle I'm expecting there to be some regression. That's not to say the Titans won't win this game, but it's going to be a close game no matter who ends up on the right side, so I'll take the points and Deshaun Watson.

i'm riding Tennessee and Ryan Tannehill, who's thrown 15 touchdowns against five interceptions. Derrick Henry is running very well. The Titans are facing a Houston team that was down 38-3 to Denver last week. Houston has lost its last three trips to Tennessee. Lay the points.