A double-digit spread seems a tad high with an underdog allowing 19 points per game and the fourth-fewest yards in the league. Three of the past five games have gone Denver’s way straight up, with a credible two-point loss at Indianapolis. The Broncos are refreshed from a bye. In a few short weeks, Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins has transitioned from a piñata to standing on a pedestal in the betting public’s eyes. He should be regarded somewhere in between.

These are two great defenses, in terms of DVOA, with both ranking in the top eight of that metric. Minnesota has had a lot of Overs lately but they've played a lot of great offenses, should be different here against Brandon Allen at home. The Vikings offense can run, run and run some more, which they're more than happy to do (32nd in pass attempts this year). This historically is a great Under spot for Minnesota as well, as the Under is 10-1 since 2007 when the Vikings are favored by double digits at home (and the one miss was by a half-point).

Denver had two weeks to prepare for Minnesota, which means the Broncos had an additional time to get QB Brandon Allen ready for the Vikings defense. I thought he was lucky against the Browns on a few plays that really turned the tide in that game. Also Cleveland still had a chance to win that game late. Look for the Vikings to put this one away early.