Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury is apparently worse than thought, and with the Chiefs missing two offensive line starters (Eric Fisher, who hasn’t played since Week 2, and Andrew Wylie) as well as Sammy Watkins, this doesn’t have the feel of a shootout. Denver totals have gone Under four times in six chances, with the Broncos defense allowing the fourth fewest yards and seventh fewest points in the league. Look for another Under in this one.

My numbers actually have the Broncos being competitive in this game with the Chiefs as a four-point favorite, so this is a gut call more than anything else. Kansas City has dominated Denver as of late both straight up and against the spread. While the Chiefs -- and most importantly, Patrick Mahomes -- are hobbled, they are far more talented offensively than the Broncos. I just don't see Kansas City losing three straight games, particularly with the third coming to Denver.

A lot of the focus has been on the Chiefs defense, and whether or not they've improved. Additional focus, based off last week, has been placed on their offensive play inside the red zone. Against a Broncos offense that has struggled with its own consistency, look for the Chiefs defense to have its best day and for their offense to take advantage of the additional opportunities with the ball. Kansas City covers.

The Under has been cashing over and over in primetime games, and I think we're in a good spot to play it here. The Chiefs offense has slowed down over the last two weeks as the Chiefs have battled O-line issues and a Patrick Mahomes that doesn't look 100 percent. After a string of 25 straight games of 25 points or more, Kansas City has gone under that number in back-to-back weeks. Meanwhile, the Broncos haven't scored more than 24 in a game and have gone under 20 in four of their six matchups. I can't see them lighting up even a bad defense like the Chiefs have.

The Chiefs have won seven straight over the Broncos, covering six of those. And they're 5-0 ATS in their last five visits to Denver. Yes, K.C. is banged-up defensively and has not been able to stop the run. Yes, Denver will pound the ball and likely control the clock. But I'll trust Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to figure things out and avoid their third straight loss. Look for a more balanced attack this week as Kansas City covers a field goal.