Normally it’s a bad idea to back an NFL team that’s laying 17 points, but this is a crazy year. In the seven games where a team has been favored by 11 or more points this season, the favorite has covered five times. When you throw in that the Giants will likely be missing Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard and Wayne Gallman, on a short week in New England, how do you go against the Patriots? Lay the points.

The Giants are limping into their game against New England, especially on offense. In this matchup, Daniel Jones will be without both WR Sterling Shepard and RB Saquon Barkley, which will make it very challenging on a short week against the best defense in the NFL.

I keep pounding the Patriots Unders, so why am I going to stop when they're at home on a short week against an offense that will likely be missing its top three playmakers? Just six teams have been favored by at least 14 points in a Thursday game, and the Under has cashed in five of those, with all five of those huge underdogs scoring just three points (the one that went Over was a 31-13 game and the only one where the massive favorite was on the road. This is a textbook 30-3 type final where the only thing that can ruin this pick will likely be defensive scores.

The Giants are going up against what looks like the best defense that Bill Belichick has ever had on a short week with a rookie quarterback. Yikes. The Patriots offense doesn't seem like it's lighting the world on fire, but the team ranks third in points scored, eighth in offensive DVOA and 10th in points per drive. That's plenty good enough to cover this number against a Giants defense that ranks 23rd in both DVOA and points allowed per drive. Only six teams have been favored by at least 14 points in a Thursday game, and five covered. Let's lay the huge number.

This number has been dropping like the temperature in these two areas. Yes, New England wields the premier defense so far and New York RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) appears unlikely to return this week. Still, rookie QB Daniel Jones has injected life into the post-Eli offense. Sunday’s shutdown by the formidable Minnesota defense is excusable. The Giants’ last four away games have reached the Over. Plus, their defense ranks 30th, so the Pats will not be scrounging for points.

Giants wideout Sterling Shepard is in concussion protocol and so is running back Wayne Gallman, who was filling in admirably for Saquon Barkley. Evan Ingram (knee) would not have been able to go Monday had the Giants practiced. Even if Saquon Barkley returns, he won't be 100 percent. So the G-Men could face New England without their leading rusher and their top two receivers. Facing New York's depleted linebacking corps, the Pats should run wild. This line is creeping up so I'm laying it now.