Backing the Oakland Raiders is never fun, but this is too many points against the the Vikings. My simulations make the Vikings just -6.5 home favorites. Take the points.

Mike Zimmer is 15-5 ATS versus AFC foes, not to mention 29-13-1 ATS at home since taking over in Minnesota. The Vikings are in bounceback mode after their frustrating loss in Green Bay, facing a Raiders team that could be missing right tackle Trent Brown (knee). He did not practice all week. It's a big number, but these are the type of games Minnesota dominates.

The Vikings have played some strong defense in 2019, and RB Dalvin Cook has been impressive through two weeks. The problem with Minnesota is the ineffective, turnover-prone Kirk Cousins at quarterback. The big-money QB has just a 10.2 QBR so far, and has as many interceptions (2) as touchdowns. Shhhh, no one wants to mention just how good Oakland has been so far. Derek Carr has thrown for 457 yards and a 51.1 QBR that is 15th in the NFL. The Raiders just look better than the Vikings so far, and the road dog looks good here.

Minnesota, with its reliance on the ground game, seems to have lost faith in QB Kirk Cousins. Oakland’s rush defense allowed a mere 2.8 yards per carry, tied for fifth in the league, so Vikings coach Mike Zimmer might have to lean on Cousins more than he would prefer. The QB’s passer ranking is 30th among starters. The Vikings are undeniably tough at home, but this is a generous spot against a team pointing north under coach Jon Gruden.

The Raiders are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 road games, and this is the type of team that Kirk Cousins plays well against. Mike Zimmer blew the game last week; they should have been running the ball in the red zone late in the game at Green Bay. Dalvin Cook is going to run all over the Raiders. Lay the points.