Even though they did not look like it in Week 1, the Miami Dolphins are a professional football team. They all have pride plus they know what they are up against. Improvement from Week 1 to Week 2 will be drastically different. Plus, the dreaded Super Bowl hangover is a real deal and the Patriots blew right through it on Sunday night against the Steelers, but that doesn't mean they won't feel it today.

I was on the Dolphins last week as I thought that line was inflated. I was wrong. This, however, would be a historic cover by the Patriots, as road favorites of 16+ points are 0-4 ATS all-time. In the Florida heat, I expect the gameplan to be to churn out yards on the ground and not expose Tom Brady to unnecessary damage behind a banged-up offensive line. That will shorten the game and limit the potential of the Patriots to put up a massive number, so we could get a cover out of this with something like a 24-6 score even if the Dolphins do nothing on offense.

I think the gameplan for the Pats will be to churn out first downs on the ground and not risk too much through the air, so I'm not expecting a repeat of the 59-10 deep-ball bonanza we saw in Miami last week. The Patriots defense looks strong, and I can't see this game getting past 40 points or so.

Do not overthink this one. This is the most massive spread in 12 seasons, and only three of the past 35 road favorites by two-plus touchdowns have been on the road, with only one of the trio covering. (Shout-out to Pro Football Reference for the numbers.) The most telling stat in this matchup is 1-6; that is New England’s ATS record in its past seven escapes to South Florida. New Dolphins coach Brian Flores knows the Pats; he was a long-time assistant to Bill Belichick. The line rocketed from 14.5 after the Dolphins’ wretched opening performance sunk in, thus providing a buying opportunity.