Last week's results -- Houston falling and New York beating Buffalo -- provided some early value in this line that I, unfortunately, missed. Seven is the right number as the Texans are clearly more talented in nearly every phase of the game. The Jets have covered consecutive games but were 0-5 ATS prior to that, whereas the Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven. Houston should wind up winning by double digits when all is said and done, but it may take until the third quarter for it to pull away.

Both teams like to establish the running game and both play a little slower than the average NFL team. Deshaun Watson has been better at home than on the road and struggles against teams with a solid pass rush. Enter the Jets. Sam Darnold will be making his second start after sitting out several games with a foot injury. Darnold has been three points below an average NFL quarterback.

Last weekend’s results cannot be ignored. Downplayed? Yes. The Texans, on a nine-game straight-up run, were not going unbeaten forever, so the setback to Indianapolis was no shock. The Jets, losers of nine in the previous 10, caught Buffalo late for a rare victory. Prior to Sunday, New York staggered through a seven-game stretch in which it averaged 15 points per game. The Jets could return to that pace with DE J.J. Watt bearing down on Sam Darnold. The rookie QB, California born and reared, might have to cope with an unfamiliar burden -- rain.

Houston let one slip away last week against the Colts and now travel to take on a New York Jets team that has the ability to pressure the quarterback. While this line is pretty close considering the current status of both teams, it's hard to trust the Jets offense with a rookie quarterback to put together back-to-back strong performances. Look for the Texans to take care of business on the road.