Simulation Picks
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Understanding Public and Money
Expert Picks
I hate laying double-digits in the NFL but I think I hate Jeff Driskel more. I'm still carrying a grudge against him for bad play while he was the Gators QB. Betting against him last week against visiting Denver proved to be the winning move and the Chargers should take advantage in the same way they beat Arizona 45-10 three weeks ago. Chargers in a blowout.
The injury-torn Bengals are a shell of their former shelves. Yet, L.A. usually refrains from walloping teams at home, owing in part to its small stadium occupied heavily by supporters of the visitors. Cincy will not draw many fans, which could result in a sleepy setting. A pair of the Chargers’ three straight-up losses have unfolded at StubHub Center, and two of their four outright wins came by one (Titans) and two points (49ers). Further, L.A. RB Melvin Gordon (knee) sits again.
I don't like laying big numbers, but it's hard to see how the Bengals score many points in this matchup with Jeff Driskel and without A.J. Green on the road against a top-tier defense. The Chargers have won four times by at least 14 points, showing they can blow out bad teams, which Cincinnati unequivocally is at this point. The Chargers' pass offense is second in DVOA while the Bengals pass defense is 27th, and there's a similar split running the ball as well. I do worry about the Chargers looking ahead to a Thursday game against the Chiefs, but I don't think it matters against this roster.
The Bengals defense has been a mess. It's allowed over 35 points per game over the last six weeks. Because of this taking the Under seems a bit scary, but I'm betting against the Bengals offense more than anything here.
Team Injuries









