The Panthers have lost four straight and are playing their fourth road game in the last five weeks on Sunday. Why are they road favorites? Cam Newton doesn't look healthy and the Carolina defense is a shell of its former glory. I expect the Carolina run game to perform well against a bad Cleveland rush defense (26th in DVOA), but I also expect the Browns to throw the ball all over a bad Panthers pass defense (28th in DVOA). I think the edge goes to the passing advantage that the home team has against a team that's struggled on the road.

Carolina's defense is really bad right now. Baker Mayfield got confused against Houston, with the looks he got, but I don't think Carolina can do that. Cleveland's defense is very good. Plus the Panthers just lost their tight end, who's important. Play on the Browns.

The reeling Panthers have dropped four straight games and have lost tight end Greg Olsen for the year. With their season on the line, the Cats head to Cleveland in a virtual must-win game vs. the Browns. Carolina may have won four of the previous five meetings against Cleveland but it has failed to cover the spread during its recent skid. My projections show the Browns covering the spread 58 percent of the time and winning the game outright nearly as often. There's no end to the Panthers' slide so take the Browns.