The Texans are far better than the Week 2 version of themselves that lost to the Titans, and while Tennessee has improved as well, it is simply one of the most inconsistent teams in the league. At home with a solid offensive line and consistency both running and throwing, the Texans have everything going for them. The Titans cant run the ball and do not have the offensive talent to keep up with the Texans for four quarters. I may have laid off at the original six, but now that we're just over a field goal, I really like Houston and the points. If you can get it at three, even better.

The Titans have won and covered the last two meetings with the Texans, including a 20-17 Week 2 win. But the Texans are in a much different mindset now. They started the season 0-3, but have reeled off seven straight wins since, with great defense being the key. The Titans have been having scoring issues and have stayed Under in five of their last six, winning just twice. Texans get the cover Monday.

Marcus Mariota suffered a stinger in his team's loss to the Colts last week, but I'm not equating this with his injury issues from earlier in the season where he had problems gripping the ball. As such, I think the Titans offense will be fine if Mariota suits up, and it appears to be trending toward that happening. The Texans have won seven straight but don't necessarily look like one of the AFC's best teams, and the Titans had been playing really well in the previous two weeks before running into the Colts buzzsaw. This is going to be closer than the line suggests.

I know the Titans flopped last week but they went up against a real hot quarterback. Mike Vrabel has beaten his old team once already; he's coached well against teams he's familiar with -- look how he beat the Patriots. I think Marcus Mariota will suit up and Tennessee will play the Texans tough.