Both Houston wins this year have come by a field goal, and this is a Texans team that's covered exactly once in the past 10 games. With the Bills defense playing well, I'm grabbing the points.

Consider this a fade on the Texans and their awful offensive line, playcalling and coaching. Considering what we've seen from Houston, who have had four ugly performances in five games at least, how can they be favored by double digits, even against the worst team in the league? I like catching this many points against a team coming off back-to-back OT performances, and even if I have no faith in the Bills offense, their defense has played well and the team is 100 percent healthy heading into this matchup.

This is a plethora of points to be given by a team that has yet to lead at the end of regulation all season. (Both wins came in overtime.) Buffalo might be a stumbling, bumbling team but actually wins outright more often than not when getting spotted at least eight points. Football Outsiders, in its analytics-based DVOA rankings, places the Bills at seventh. Houston QB Deshaun Watson (chest) is feeling the effects of some hard hits last Sunday, so he might rein in the scrambling that defenses normally fear.

The Bills have proven to be the league's worst offense by a mile, so I'm going to look to play the Under in their games where it makes sense, especially with it cashing in each of their last three games. The Bills defense has been playing well, and I can see their front giving a mediocre Texans offensive line issues. That could lead to short fields for the Bills, but I doubt they punch the ball in consistently, especially with Texans playing the run well. Expect another unwatchable Bills game here.