It's been a tough start to the year for the Raiders, and I don't think it's going to get any easier for Derek Carr at Mile High. Even if the Broncos are not tremendous offensively, Denver's defense should force Oakland into enough mistakes to cover a touchdown at home. There were high hopes coming into the season that the Raiders would be better under Jon Gruden, but it's tough to believe in them after seeing their performance in Week 1.

I have the Raiders defense ranked 31st out of 32 teams, last year with Khalil Mack they ranked 27th in yards per play allowed. Case Keenum threw just seven INTs last year but threw three in Week 1, so look for him to play a far better game against a weaker defense. The Broncos allowed 6.2 yards per play last week and now must try to stop Derek Carr who will look far better after finally taking some snaps with the first team.

It's crazy that the favorite has gone 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these rivals, But this number is a bit too high based on what we saw last. Sure the Raiders got rolled in the second half last week, but that was by the top rated NFC team. Denver got lucky by winning despite three picks by new QB Case Keenum. Oakland will play well here and will be in a position to win against a Broncos squad that has many question marks. Raiders get the cover.

The Broncos are nearly unbeatable at home in the first two weeks of the season (one loss since 1999), so this is an obvious teaser play this week at this number. The Raiders should be one of the worst teams in football this year; right now I have them as the second-worst team in my power ratings, ahead of just the Bills. Case Keenum needs to better protect the ball, but he should have an easier time against this defense. And defensive line injuries for the Raiders could open up the running game for Denver to extend a second-half lead.

Derek Carr has become increasingly uncomfortable in the pocket since suffering his leg injury. He's sensing the pressure before it's there and getting rid of the ball too early. Well, now he's hitting the road to take on the Broncos and Von Miller this week. I have to imagine he's already having nightmares about Miller. I don't think taking Denver (-6) is a bad play, either, but I don't trust Case Keenum much, and the Under is the smarter play.

The Raiders are coming off a physical Monday night game and on a short week they go to Denver, which is a tough place to play. Denver has as good a pass rush as there is. Derek Carr has a quick release, but he'll make mistakes. The Broncos have a good, balanced offense. It's going to take Jon Gruden a while to get the Raiders on track.