Hopping on this now that it has fallen inside the key number. Let me count the ways I like the Packers in this situation prior to considering the matchup. I like Green Bay in season openers, night games, against Chicago and when Aaron Rodgers is angry with something to prove. Rodgers is coming off a season lost due to injury, and while his receiving corps has changed, he also has his best tight end (Jimmy Graham) in years. The Bears do deserve some love, particularly since they have a new coach looking to bring some offensive life to Chicago and a new star defender in Khalil Mack. Still, the spread falling this far makes it a buy for me. I'm taking this before it bounces back up.

The Packers have won the previous four meetings against the Bears and eight of the last nine, going 7-2 ATS. Last season's game at Lambeau was 35-14 Packers. The Bears have a new coach and a new defensive monster in Khalil Mack. Mitch Trubisky has a year under his belt, but didn't get much work in the preseason, which is a bit surprising with so many new components. The main thing is Aaron Rodgers is healthy, and the spread has dropped so much thanks to wiseguys jumping all over Bears +9 and down the ladder. But the public usually wins these isolated night games and it loves the Packers. I'm rolling with the public here. Green Bay covers.

This selection is not all — just mostly — about new Chicago LB Khalil Mack. Oddly, the spread did not budge with the Bears’ acquisition, perhaps because of doubts about Mack’s readiness. Indications are that he’ll be ready to go, which places a greater burden on Green Bay’s line to protect Aaron Rodgers. A bonus factor is the absence of RB Aaron Jones (suspension), the Pack’s primary ground-gainer last year. A new-look offense under rookie head coach Matt Nagy and promising QB Mitchell Trubisky adds intrigue to a matchup not as lopsided as recent history suggests.

The Sunday primetime game features two longtime rivals, though it hasn't been much of a rivalry over the last 20 years. First Brett Favre destroyed the hopes of Bears fans, and now it's Aaron Rodgers. While there's a part of me worried that Rodgers decides to show off for the national audience, the Bears were a top 10 defense last season and they just added Khalil Mack. Expect defense to win out Sunday night.