This line dropped fast to 4.5 based on some professional groups backing the Bears at 6. I'll grab it before it goes back to the key number of 6. The Texans enjoy a strong homefield edge and fielded the NFL's top defense in the second half of last season. Look for Brock Osweiler, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller to exploit Chicago's overmatched secondary for a few big plays.

It's time to lock in my ONE and only pick for Sunday with the Houston Texans -6 at home vs. Chicago Bears. The Texans had a fantastic off-season, adding Brock Osweiler, Will Fuller and Lamar Miller. Osweiler and Miller represent a huge upgrade offensively for a team that won 7 games in 2015. This Texans team is an 11 win team in my projections and I have them easily covering this -6 spread at home against Jay Cutler and the Bears. My simulations have the Texans winning by 11 points. Lock in this absolute blowout winner now before it moves to -7.

We just saw how a dominating defense can carry a team to the title with just 'okay' quarterbacking and I see a lot of Denver's 2015 style in the Texans' defense, which allowed 10 points or less in six of their final nine regular-season games. And even with poor QB play, they still managed to win seven of those games and earn a playoff birth. Now they get Brock Osweiler, who led the Broncos to a 5-2 record -- an unheralded performer in Denver's championship run. They don't get home field in the playoffs without Osweiler. His first career start came at Chicago Nov. 22 and he won 17-15. Osweiler is the missing ingredient to take Houston to the next level and he's going prove it right out of the gate in front of the home crowd against the Bears. Jay Cutler has proven that his bad habits and lackluster attitude make him almost uncoachable. Cutler aside, the Bears just aren't that talented. Expect this line to move closer to -7 by kickoff, so if you like Houston as I do, bet it ASAP.