James Robinson was not selected in the 2020 NFL Draft. But by the end of his rookie season, the Jaguars running back helped plenty of Fantasy managers win their leagues with his more than 1,400 total yards and 10 total touchdowns. In 2021, sixth-round rookie Elijah Mitchell rushed for 963 yards in 11 healthy games while fourth-round selection Amon-Ra St. Brown was a league-winner off of the waiver wire for many Fantasy managers. Last year, Tyler Allgeier and Isiah Pacheco were afterthoughts in Fantasy drafts but came on strong for Fantasy managers down the stretch run.
Generally, rookies who have an average draft position that falls outside of the top 150 have the odds stacked against them and aren't likely to contribute during Year 1. Outliers aren't easy to identify until after the fact, and trying to find the next undrafted breakout like Pacheco is likely to be a fruitless endeavor.
While the probability of identifying a league-winner among the late-round rookies 2023 is not high, we still might be able to find a few undervalued rookies capable of elevating their Fantasy value in a big way if things break their way in Year 1. Here are 10 names that are selected outside of the top 150 picks on average, according to Underdog Fantasy's ADP, who are worth keeping an eye on and potentially rostering in leagues with deeper benches. The Week 1 role might not be clear for these rookies, but they could play their way into a Fantasy-relevant role as the year progresses!
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I detailed the top rookies at QB, RB, and WR, if you want more information on the class as a whole. Check it out:
Rookie QB analysis
Rookie RB analysis
Rookie WR analysis
Underdog Fantasy ADP:
177 overall
WR75
Tank Dell's alignment was what I was most curious to track this preseason. At just 165 pounds, Dell is certainly a candidate to become relegated to slot-only work at the NFL level. We saw him win from the slot and perimeter at the collegiate level, though, and that's how the Texans used him during preseason play. In fact, the vast majority (85%) of Dell's routes came lined up outside of the slot this preseason, so Houston certainly seems interested in seeing if he can win from the perimeter.
The early indications are that Dell can win and draw targets at a high rate from anywhere on the field. It's just preseason, and he only ran 22 total routes, so this is hardly actionable. It's an exciting first step, though!
This is particularly exciting because it's not coming out of nowhere. Dell was wildly successful during his time as a Cougar.
Over his final two seasons at Houston, Dell was straight-up the most productive receiver at any size. He led all of college football with 2,727 receiving yards and 29 touchdowns. Dell was targeted on over 30% of his routes over his final two seasons, which is particularly impressive given his average depth of target of 11+ yards in each season.
Dell is more than just a small short-yardage threat. He showed an ability to work multiple levels of the field with success and brings a refined route tree after collegiate seasons. He is a red zone threat, in spite of his size. There are more ways to win in the red zone than on jump balls, and Dell showcased just how deceptive and uncoverable he is when isolated with his 29 scores over his final two seasons.
The Texans used Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Noah Brown as their starting receivers this preseason, so Dell might not be in play as a Fantasy option until later in the season. This Texans team needs playmakers and route runners who can create separation and present options for their young QB. I expect that Dell will work his way into a larger role as the year goes on. Woods is 31 years old and showed signs of a fairly significant decline in 2022. Brown is a 27-year-old former seventh-round pick who has never shown an ability to earn targets at an above league-average rate. Dell's time will likely come in 2023.
Underdog Fantasy ADP:
164 overall
WR71
There has been a stead drumbeat building for Jayden Reed for four or five months. Fantasy analysts fell in love with his profile, then an NFL team took him earlier than expected (50th overall), that was followed by continual glowing reports out of Packers training camp, and then Reed capped off his hot summer with a preseason that featured multiple flash plays and an exciting 26% target per route run rate.
Reed appears set to open the season as the slot receiver for the Packers, a role that will only put him on the field for three-receiver sets. In this role, Reed is going to have to be extremely efficient with his opportunities to be relevant in Fantasy. And there's a chance that this is the role that Reed plays all year, no matter how good he is. The Packers seem to really like Romeo Doubs. Doubs appeared entrenched as the team's X-receiver and basically never came off of the field this preseason.
The Packers have a plethora of young pass-catching weapons, and Jordan Love showed some exciting moments during preseason action. This offense may be better than projections are able to account for, given the number of unknown variables, in which case Reed might be relevant in Fantasy even while only playing two-thirds of the snaps. If I feel the need to add another flex option to my team, Reed is not the pick. He's a luxury upside pick in my draft strategy. I usually already have four to six receivers by the time he's in consideration, so it's a luxury pick that I've ended up making quite a bit of this summer. Lately, I've noticed that I'm limiting myself to either Reed or Luke Musgrave at the ends of drafts so as to not end up with way too much Packers exposure.
Underdog Fantasy ADP:
164 overall
TE20
From a prospect profile standpoint, Luke Musgrave presented something like the tight end position's version of Christian Watson, and so I really appreciated when my podcasting partner on Beyond the Boxscore, Dan Schneier, came to our May "Rookie Gem" episode ecstatic to discuss Musgrave's landing spot in Green Bay. Just last year, he spoke with the same gleam in his eye about a rookie Watson.
You see, Dan watches the film. He is obsessed with this game that we play. When a player catches Dan's eye, it catches my attention. Dan saw an electric weapon at the tight end position with size and athleticism to create serious matchup problems for opposing defenses, which is clearly what Musgrave appears to be on the field. Why was his collegiate data so underwhelming, then?
His career per-route rates and raw production does not inspire confidence. But, in his final season, Musgrave was balling out before he got hurt. Musgrave topped 80 yards in each of Oregon State's first two games and recorded an awesome 31% target per route run rate and 3.52 yard per route run rate. He only played two games, unfortunately, but the playmaking ability showed up in 2022.
This summer, Musgrave has received as much hype, if not more, than Reed. The Packers did select him seven spots ahead of Reed, and they've been intentional in finding creative ways to get him involved this preseason. In fact, Musgrave's target share was the highest of any Green Bay pass-catcher while Love was in at QB.
The track record of rookie tight ends being relevant in Fantasy is not encouraging, but everything seems to be working in Musgrave's favor as we head into Week 1. A route involvement above 80% almost always results in top-15 Fantasy TE production, and there's potential for so much more beyond that if the target rate that Musgrave saw this preseason is at all replicable.
Underdog Fantasy ADP:
159 overall
WR68
I can't bring up my man Dan in a sleeper rookies article without next talking about his New York Giants and first-year speedster Jalin Hyatt.
Hyatt brings one of the widest ranges of outcomes of any WR prospect in recent memory. His 3.49 yard per route run rate at Tennessee during the 2022 season is one of the highest single-season rates that we've seen during the time that I have the data available (dating back to 2017). That was Hyatt's only season with more than 300 receiving yards, and the role that he filled in that Volunteers offense does not exist at the NFL level. Hyatt may have the skill set to contend with press coverage at the NFL level, but it's hard to say that with any conviction with almost zero plays against press at the collegiate level to draw from.
The Giants believed -- enough to invest a Round 3 pick, at least. And this preseason, they used Hyatt almost exclusively from the perimeter. 11% of Hyatt's routes came from the slot this preseason. His lowest slot rate at Tennessee was 84%.
Schneier liked what he saw from Hyatt, and we heard plenty of good things out of Giants camp this summer. Trying to sort out New York's projected playing time at the WR position is a mess. Hyatt ran a route on three of 10 Daniel Jones dropbacks this preseason, for what it's worth -- fewer than Darius Slayton (8), Isaiah Hodgins (7), and Parris Campbell (6).
I believe that Schneier's contention is that Hyatt brings an element to the offense that will force New York's hand, and that eventually he'll force his way onto the field. Taking cheap shots on offenses with an ambiguous target distribution is a winning strategy for Fantasy, especially if you believe that the offense can be productive. This was not a productive passing offense in 2022, but there is plenty of reason for optimism in 2023.
Among the rookie receivers included in this article, Hyatt ranks closer to the A.T. Perry and Trey Palmer tier than to Puka Nacua, Jayden Reed, and Tank Dell. You can find my most-recently updated (8.30 at 1 pm ET) 2023 season-long rankings here, if you're curious where all of these rookies rank!
Underdog Fantasy ADP:
151 overall
RB50
Roschon Johnson's first year playing running back was in 2019 as a true freshman. He never earned a starting gig during his time at Texas, backing up Keaontay Ingram and then Bijan Robinson. When given the opportunity to run, Johnson was tough to tackle. His career 35.4% avoided tackle rate was the third-highest from the 2023 rookie class, and Johnson elevated that rate with each passing year of learning the RB position.
Johnson made two career starts at Texas, during which he rumbled for 256 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 46 attempts. He has the size to handle a starter's workload, and the analytical profile that Johnson accumulated while working in reserve at Texas suggests that he could be highly productive with more touches.
Chicago was intrigued enough by the possibilities of Johnson's outlook to use a Round 4 pick to add him to an RB room that already had two explosive rushers in Khalil Herbert and D'Onta Foreman. It will be interesting to see how Johnson fits into this room -- Herbert has been one of the most difficult backs to tackle over the past two seasons, while few backs run in as bruising of a fashion as Foreman. Neither back profiles as a strong option on passing downs, though. The Bears do have passing-down specialist Travis Homer on the roster. There may not be a role for Johnson in Year 1, but his diverse skill-set offers him the potential to fill a number of roles or potentially fill a pseudo-three-down role if Herbert or Foreman were to sustain an injury.
Underdog Fantasy ADP:
214 overall
WR95
Puka Nacua only ran 494 collegiate routes, but they were magnificent. He was wildly efficient while filling a downfield-oriented route tree (16.7-yard aDOT) in 2021, averaging 3.55 yards per route run. BYU's offense centered around Tyler Allgeier, and Nacua's 805 yards made him the only Cougar to finish with more than 600 receiving yards. In 2022, Nacua was made the focal point of the offense and his average depth of target dropped to 12 yards. As a result, his target per route run rate spiked to 39.2% and he actually increased his yard per route run rate to 3.65. BYU also got him involved as a rusher, and Nacua totaled 209 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Unfortunately, injuries kept him to just five healthy games and four partial games. The upside was clear when he was healthy, as Nacua averaged 120 scrimmage yards per game in the five games that he did not leave with an injury.
The disjointed nature of Nacua's collegiate career left him with a less than inspiring total body of work, and he's not a standout athlete, so he fell to Round 5. The Rams appear to have landed a steal, though, as Nacua consistently drew rave reviews with his training camp performance, shined in the first week of the preseason, and then sat out the rest of preseason action. If you believe in your ability to read the tea leaves, all signs sure seem to point towards Nacua playing an important role for the Rams in 2023, right?
If Nacua is an every-down player in three-receiver sets, he'll play a ton. The Rams had three or more receivers on the field for 92% of their offensive plays in 2022, the highest rate in the NFL. Van Jefferson has never shown an ability to draw targets at even a league-average rate while occupying a field-stretching role as the X-receiver, and Nacua's collegiate per-route data is far more encouraging than Jefferson's. There's a realistic chance that Nacua competes with Tyler Higbee for second place in L.A.'s target distribution right away as a rook. Among the 10 rookies that we'll discuss today, Roschon Johnson is the only one I'm drafting ahead of Nacua in season-long leagues.
Underdog Fantasy ADP:
216 overall
WR118
A.T. Perry was one of my favorite sleeper prospects in this class prior to the draft -- he's 6-foot-3 with a lanky frame and speed to burn and put up some eye-popping per-route data during his time as a Demon Deacon -- but his extremely wide range of outcomes profile made him quite reliant on landing spot. Unfortunately, his name wasn't called until Round 6 and he landed in a Saints offense that projects as likely to be one of the worst in the NFL.
I don't love the late-round draft capital or the landing spot. But Perry could work his way into playing time as soon as Year 1. Rashid Shaheed played well in 2022, but we have no clue if the Saints view him as an every-down player. This team rotates its wide receivers more than anyone else in the NFL. Perry could definitely be used situationally, and it's possible that he'll be used in some sort of rotation with Shaheed from the get-go after Shaheed missed the preseason with an injury.
We also have not seen anything close to a full season from Michael Thomas in a long, long time.
There are paths to playing time for Perry as a rookie, and he has length, athleticism, and a history of drawing targets and being highly productive at Wake Forest. Keep an eye on him.
Underdog Fantasy ADP:
215 overall
WR101
Trey Palmer stood out this preseason.
With Russell Gage out for the season, Palmer has a chance to be a Week 1 starter in three-receiver sets for Tampa Bay.
After transferring from LSU, Palmer averaged a blistering 3.51 yards per route run on an even more absurd 37% target per route run rate at Nebraska in 2022. He was super inconsistent on a game-to-game basis, particularly once Nebraska hit the more difficult portion of their schedule. Palmer sprinkled in games of one yard, 12 yards, and 37 yards amidst 157-yard, 165-yards, and 237-yard eruptions.
Palmer is an awesome Best Ball pick, as he could deliver spike weeks even while Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are both healthy. For Palmer to turn into a player who we can roster with reasonably optimistic expectations in season-long leagues, one of two things will likely be required -- an injury to Evans or Godwin, or Tampa Bay drastically outperforming their projected expectations offensively.
At this point, I see Palmer as a player to roster in Dynasty formats and potentially take late-round shots on in Best Ball. He's already pushed for far more Fantasy relevancy than most Round 6 picks, though. Don't forget his name, Palmer may keep pushing his momentum forward and be a player worth adding at some point in 2023.
Underdog Fantasy ADP:
213 overall
RB69
Sean Tucker rushed for over 2,500 yards combined during his final two seasons at Syracuse and worked as a bell-cow, handling 84% of the RB rush attempts. His receiving profile doesn't offer anything exciting, except for the fact that he did play on third downs.
The Sean Tucker truthers I've encountered seem convinced that he's a special player. Nothing in his analytical profile stands out to me, but Tucker does bring impressive burst and is fun to watch run. He was one of the most efficient rushers this preseason and worked his way onto the active roster, which is a fantastic start for a UDFA running back.
He currently sits behind Rachaad White, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, and Chase Edmonds, but each of those backs presents their own set of question marks. If Tucker continues to impress Tampa's coaching staff, he could work his way into a role in this backfield.
Keep an eye on Tucker, at least. He could leapfrog Vaughn on the depth chart and work his way into some early-down carries.
Underdog Fantasy ADP:
198 overall
QB35
Dorian Thompson-Robinson rushed for 1,254 yards and 12 scores over his final two seasons at UCLA and showcased his explosive rushing ability this preseason with four avoided tackles on 14 rushes for 69 yards. He also impressed as passer and decision maker. If Thompson-Robinson were, for any reason, to receive an opportunity to start for the Browns as a rookie, he would bring exciting Fantasy upside.
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