TEXAS BOWL -- It's a battle of Power Five private schools. Baylor took a huge step forward this season, improving from 1-11 last year to 6-6 this season. It gets to play this game a three-hour drive away from home against a Vanderbilt team that's similar to it in quite a few ways, but one that's also being overestimated a bit in this spread. The Commodores defense has allowed nearly 5 yards per carry this season, and I expect the Bears to take advantage of that.

TEXAS BOWL -- Baylor has been a good story this season. Head coach Matt Rhule has done a great job in bringing this program back the right way. But on the field in this one, the Commodores have the advantage. Both teams play the same style, but I believe Vandy will execute better and will make big plays on special teams. Lay the points.

TEXAS BOWL -- Vanderbilt annually has among the most difficult paths to bowl eligibility among Power Five programs. The Commodores don't take the opportunity for granted when they get there, and they had to beat Ole Miss and Tennessee in the final two weeks to reach six wins. They also have the more experienced and talented team in this matchup. Rebuilding Baylor probably overachieved in reaching a bowl, but should be physically outmatched here and its best offensive weapon, Jalen Hurd, will miss the game with an injury. Vanderbilt, in top form, covers this number with room to spare.

TEXAS BOWL -- Even with a semi-home field edge, Baylor might consider playing in a bowl as gravy after having won once last season. The Bears will take the field without premier WR Jalen Hurd, which could subject their QBs to more sacks after leading the Big 12 in that category. A chronically off-target K, Connor Martin, might add to the challenge of scoring. Momentum does not always carry over from the regular season, but Vandy’s five-game ATS streak -- best of all bowlers -- bodes well.